We voted to leave the European Union on 23rd June 2016 and technically – even politically - it should be as easy as it was when we first joined what was then called the European Economic Community in 1973. However, the context has evolved and the European Union has no intention to let the United Kingdom leave its superstructure thus relying on an interconnected web of influencers to ensure the UK remains tied up to the EU in whatever ways possible.
First, there are a few people within the British Establishment whose main purpose is to undermine Britain's electoral primacy. These public figures have used their status to either annul the referendum or come up with ways to keep the United Kingdom tied up in some ways to the European Union thus in essence preventing our exit from the European Union. These ideas have ranged from accepting the primacy of the European Court of Justice over our own judiciary or threatening to freeze Britain out of any information sharing on terrorism. These people put pressure and endeavour to influence and force the Prime Minister's hands to avoid a "Hard Brexit" at all cost, which is only what we voted for. The EU, whilst worried, is reassured there are powerful forces within the establishment working hard to tighten the UK's negotiating position.
Second, the European Union has no intention to negotiate no matter what its public stance is. The United Kingdom's exit from the European Union constitutes an existential threat to a project, which has yet to demonstrate its value beyond the Eurocracy's intent on keeping it on life support at all costs. Tactically the EU has no other choice but to endeavour by any means possible to reverse Brexit. Time is of the essence; the EU has no mechanism for compromise or adaptation. Eurocrats do not accept sovereign electoral primacy. Let's remind ourselves of France's referendum on the European Constitution! Despite the country's rejection, the French political class pressed ahead with its adoption making minor amendments to make it compatible with the French Constitution. Back to the case of Brexit, Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament's chief Brexit negotiator, has alluded to the European's rigid positioning in regards to the UK's exit from the EU during an exchange with Andrea Jenkyns MP:
"This is not a classical, political trade off, wheeling and dealing between political parties."
See tweet here: https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1009387157415440385
He advised the United Kingdom to negotiate within the boundaries of Article 50. One must remember that a negotiator must never accept its counterpart's terms but redefine the rules to his own advantage without fear.
Third, there are strong signs that the EU is standing on its last legs; Brexit, the rise of populism in Italy and beyond as well as, and most importantly, the unsolvable sovereign debt crisis and self-inflicted consequences of quantitative easing, which have yet to yield any potent rise in inflation - are all contributing elements, which should hasten our exit, not delay it. With Brexit, the European Central Bank and the euro are facing the most violent deflation in modern history, even exceeding the global slump of the1930s. If this happens, the solution then would be: monetary hyperinflation to bail out the banks, governments and the indebted. It is worth remembering that the United Kingdom remains the clearing house of the European Union and must use as many of the tools at its disposal to exert as much pressure on the EU as they are aggressively exerting on us.
Fourth, the latest stunt of the European Union was to install an inexperienced banker, Emmnuel Macron, at the helm of the French state. So far one might describe his efforts to reform the European Union as abysmal. Simon Nixon, Chief European Commentator at the Wall Street Journal, describes the Meseberg Declaration as an empty victory for French President Emmanuel Macron:
"There is no question of the eurozone issuing its own debt. The stabilization function will take the form of loans from the European Stability Mechanism to cover a member state's contributions if it falls into recession. But this means that the only benefit to a member state is the saving on its interest expense. The agreement is clear that there will be no fiscal transfers. And there is no mention of how big the budget will be."
Nixon concludes, "The message that the markets is likely to have received is that there won't now be any meaningful eurozone reform except in a crisis. Whether this makes a crisis more likely is an open question." Full article here.Worth a read!
Whilst the media focus on Macron's effort (or lack of) to reinvigorate a dying project, one must also take notice that our neighbour has tried to infiltrate our very own institutions by ensuring strategic positions are filled by people aligned to the European project France and others are desperately clinging on to. Several think-tanks have been swamped by politically motivated individuals who are using our institutions to change May's tack in the negotiations – bearing in mind the PM should not engage in negotiations at all. Theresa May should leave the European Union and force countries to negotiate after our departure.And they will!
Fifth, the election of Donald Trump in the United States was a surprise and came as a bad omen for the European Union. The 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel stemming from the EU was a blow to the European project. The president of the United States is thinking about imposing taxes on German cars - targeting the heart of the European economy – and thus the home of Merkel's political ally, the Christian Social Union of Bavaria, where the German automobile industry resides.
The United Kingdom should ride the Trump tide, secure a deal and embrace the new paradigm it has engineered through Brexit. At the end of the day, Trump may not just target the European economy. These tariffs could be just the beginning!A few weeks ago, The Spectator hinted that NATO may be next on Trump's cards. Who knows?
Britain is due to exit the EU in March 2019. Logically, Brexit should not be deflected by the credit crisis and the Eurozone catastrophe but these events could lead to the United Kingdom staying in the European Union for the foreseeable future which is what the EU is hoping for! The litmus test remains whether May and her government can sustain these attacks from within and beyond to ensure the referendum is respected and honoured. That is, after all, the only way out!