Years ago I worked with an economist on a project. He told me his 'art' (he refused to claim it was science) was akin to driving backwards the wrong way down a motorway - blindfold. It was a difficult project commercially and politically, which was perhaps a reason for his gloomy reflection. Unfortunately, the economic history of the world rather supports his comment.
Mr. Micawber's recipe for financial happiness and security "Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery". Is one that has occasionally been followed with great success, but mostly ignored. Henry VIII would have felt at home among today's money printers. He could only manipulate coins, and debased them so much that the copper showed through earning him the sobriquet "Old Copper Nose". It was his daughter Elizabeth I who, working with Thomas Gresham and William Cecil, restored the value of money by replacing the debased coinage. During her reign, fiscal restraint, a reluctance to levy taxes and the encouragement of both exploration and trade heralded a golden age.
In the world of 'Globalism' money printing, just in time and smoke and mirrors interdependency are the norm. So much of the world suffers immigration crises because, according to the experts, locals are too lazy to do the work. It's cheaper to import skills than train them. In reality it is cheaper to import cheap labour than pay a proper wage. In the boardrooms of mega corporation having components made cheaply all over the globe makes sense. It ceases to be sensible when a product cannot be used because a component manufacturer says no, (as with some weapon systems). It also makes no sense to people who grow up in a country and cannot find work or training. The people who put Donald Trump in the Whitehouse are those people. They do not see themselves as 'economic units', they see themselves as Americans who want to work, to make products, not buy American brands made in China or Vietnam. Between the rock of automation and the hard place of corporate indifference they have revolted. The revolt is spreading and the world needs a rethink - urgently.
What is the point of a Nation and its People? In the outsourced world they have no special value because so the theory goes, in a Global economy everything can be outsourced. That is until someone throws a spanner in the works and demands a fair deal for working people. When Liz Truss introduced her budget the global elite set about bringing her down. Partly it was her own fault for not being better prepared. Mostly it was because she threatened to create an economy that would have stood out, have been successful and rewarded the people of Britain. The hysteria that has followed Trump's tariff announcement is based on the same fear.
Tariffs are protectionist. The EU imposes them to protract its markets. It even seasonally raises them to stop agricultural imports providing EU consumers with cheaper food. The idea that they are a zero sum game is not apparent, however much they claim otherwise. The same is true of many countries. In the late 19th Century both the USA and Imperial Germany grew rich behind tariff walls. They only don't work if the other side notice what you are up to. For that there are non tariff barriers. The EU is adept at them. The latest is the requirement that anyone shipping goods to the EU must have an EU resident representative. That has crippled small exporters.
What Trump has done is to challenge globalism. He has asked the question: "What is the point of a Nation and its People?" It must be taken seriously and answered. It requires sensible examination not knee jerk hysteria. The world is becoming more dangerous. Is it actually sensible that we do not have our own satellite and GPRS system? Is it sensible that we outsource the production of parts of our military equipment? Is it sensible that we have outsourced almost our entire manufacturing to countries that are not our friends? The USA cutting off Ukraine from intelligence should be a wake up call.
We have got to decide if we want to live in a Nation State ruled by democratically elected governments or a Global world ruled by the mainly invisible. President Trump has forced the world to address and answer that question. For that we should be grateful.
