The mortar is the global south. Ironically for all its anti-colonialist rhetoric and claim to speak for the global south, an empire ('of free trade' at least) appears to be under construction, or an unequal association with eventually its own currency and foreign policy. Of particular concern is the presence of the China, Russia, Iran axis at the top table.
BRICS has gone from being a loose association of four economies to something far more geopolitical with a common agenda that can be interpreted as establishing a rival new world order to that proposed by the USA. So, in 2024, against a background of war, energy crises and sanctions, the newly expanded BRICS is flexing its muscles. Since South Africa joined it has expanded this year to include Egypt, the UAE, Iran and Ethiopia so giving it a Middle Eastern Red Sea/Gulf presence. Its partners include several Chinese and Russian allies and prospective members in central Africa and the Far East. If one was going to build a rival empire to the EU and Anglosphere und US leadership, this would be it.
What used to be East and West is now the global North and South in a new geopolitical dichotomy. While not strictly ideologically divided, the ascendancy of (southern) BRICS members being largely economic, they and the whole Global South are increasingly defined politically according to their perceived history.
Much is spoken about multipolarity by BRICS members, but the real possibility is it turning into bipolarity and the risk of a new Cold War, South versus north. Also, the South encouraged to think of the North in terms of old scores to be settled and thus divide the world even more.
The old West as the North maintains its position through digital colonialism and by denying its past - ascribing its faults to those of its dissenters that deviate from the accepted agenda.
The old West, as what amounts to a US/EU empire, struggles to maintain its influence and moral/cultural leadership by using remote monitoring and attempted management around the globe alongside what outsiders might regard as empty talk of freedom and the rule of law.
The Commonwealth is a truer and more comprehensive model of multipolar union and common purpose than either of the geopolitical rival blocs, but is criticised as a vestige of empire and is opposed by Global South nations under Chinese, Russian influence and economic power. Britain's place may be to stand outside the US/European axis and encourage common purpose multipolarity through the Commonwealth and regain its moral rather than its economic or political authority.
Whereas India claims to be the voice of the Global South, China is using its massive economic and cultural influence to assume that title for itself. Meanwhile, Russia's criticism of the West/North looks like an attempt at influencing MENA nations in its favour.
Several new member states are to be welcomed into the BRICS club in January, joining the heavyweights around the table at the next summit. Unsurprisingly, all of the new members have strong trading links with China and the national interests of the existing members remain competitive.
The West/North has been making plans for the world without proper consultation, promoting its own vision digitally and social/culturally. Much woke-like PR. However, the inequality of pandemic response, supply chains and the Ukraine War and its effects on grain and fertiliser supplies have shown the West/North as partisan.
In short, Western libertarians have more in common with the South than North and an alternative vision of a global future needs to be proposed that will put digitisation back in its box and into a human context, guaranteeing individual liberty as well as global equity.
The North has pulled the carpet from under the Global South by inviting them to participate in supranational organisations to dip their hands in their own blood.
American politicians might have been forgiven for thinking that the 'decline of the West' had been arrested by the collapse of the USSR, but the resulting unipolarity solved nothing. The cold war had ended, but it had not been won. The free world was not that free and although countries queued up to join it, outside the gates effective economic vassalage remained.
In time, there followed a global economic shift and the economies that grew quickest tended to be in countries not necessarily associated with Western attitudes, such as the BRIC countries, Brazil, Russia, India and China, plus the tiger economies in the East.
Now BRICS, with South Africa added, is expanding with African and Middle Eastern countries being added and the Global South is starting to feel its political muscle on the global stage at last.
Even the mighty dollar may fall, but not quite yet. A successful BRICS rival to the hitherto pre-eminent US dollar could risk turmoil in international markets however temporary and add to current economic uncertainties including over cryptocurrencies. However, that does not look likely anytime soon, if at all, because of the massive difficulties in setting up an alternative currency, plus those wishing to disengage from the dollar are treading carefully, currently preferring to deal in stable national currencies, but even then, tentatively for now.
What went wrong?
The 2023 Global Memo, The BRICS Summit 2023: Seeking an Alternate World Order? by ORF, SWP, SAIIA, SVOP, SIIS, RSIS, FGV, and CFR for the Council of Councils, comments, "The West's proclivity to deploy unilateral financial sanctions, abuse international payments mechanisms, renege on climate finance commitments, and accord scant respect to food security and health imperatives of the Global South during the pandemic are only some of the elements responsible for the growing disenchantment with the prevailing international system."
This was followed by what some saw as protectionist policies relating to energy and commodities especially during the supply chain crisis and relating to the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine, which all exacerbated the frustration of nations outside the global Northern charmed circle.
Furthermore, the growing economic and socio-political power and influence of US tech companies across the world fuelled concerns about data sovereignty and creeping US digital colonialism.
Not being a monolith, the West consists of a range of nations and policies changing over time, but all benefitting from circumstances and economic policies, which risk disadvantaging less developed nations, intentionally or otherwise. Consequently, although there is a natural inclination to put national and collective interests first to meet targets and retain political popularity, governments have a duty to view the changing global political landscape in a truly global context to ensure no one is left out, rather than just stumble from crisis to crisis looking after number one and risking instability elsewhere.
An economically top-heavy or over-regulated world is not contusive to global harmony. People as individuals and nations need room to move politically, socially and economically. All political geographic boundaries may be abolished one day, but only by choice. The removal of choice, whether by the tyranny of men or circumstance, can only lead to resentment, dissent and chaos.
Consequently, the Global South cannot and should not be shepherded into a pen designated by its northern cousin, but choose its own path with the unqualified support of the North.
Who speaks for the Global South?
BRICS is not anti-west as such, but some of its members definitely are. On the whole, there is an agreement to promote the interests and participation of the Global South although for different reasons. So, that could mean redressing the balance, or taking an advantage of an imbalance. History is an issue a well. Of the countries regarded as anti-Western, such as Russia, China and Iran, each has some resentment at the historic actions or policies of Western powers. The Global South as a whole is largely made up of former imperial possessions which, have been prey to negative and divisive opinion spread on social media. Consequently, the image of the North is not contusive to future harmonious relations with the unfortunate side effect of placing global equity and unity further off, rather than closer.
A 94-point joint statement (Johannesburg Declaration) at BRICS 2023 reiterated the members' commitment to enhancing and improving global governance by promoting a more agile, effective, efficient, representative, democratic and accountable international and multilateral system.
To this end the BRICS countries chose to add Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Ethiopia to their number in January 2024. Of these, Iran, UAE, Ethiopia and Egypt have joined.
UN Secretary General, António Guterres, addressed the summit, pointing out the necessity to reflect contemporary power dynamics and economic realities: "As the global community moves towards multipolarity, we desperately need - and I have been vigorously advocating for - a strengthened and reformed multilateral architecture based on the UN Charter and international law to avoid fragmentation."
Taking a lead does not mean the same as assuming authority, unless moral authority. The economic powerhouse that is China has considerable influence over those new member states and countries in the Global South that are in its economic web, but the South has no wish to swap US global dominance for Chinese. Russia would like to drive a wedge between the old declining West and new emergent South, but a multipolar new order is taking shape, as supported by India, South Africa and Brazil.
One can see national and ideological self-interest taking advantage of pre-existing divisions such as the legacy of colonialism. However, the negativity and revenge culture of the anti-western countries work against them, whereas positive engagement East and West, north and south promises global cooperation and openness with no one left out.
Multipolarity
Multipolarity can be seen as a way of disengaging from a New World Order agenda set by the USA without falling into the trap of establishing a new bipolar world of North/South and inheritor of cold war distrust between East and West.
At the 2022 G20, BRICS member India's insistence that representatives of the Global South are present at the high tables of major economic organisations, makes sense in the context of a new multipolar world order that rises above old. The world's largest democracy thus emphasises the need for the democratic inclusivity of all nations to prevent the dominance of any country or group of countries over the others. India's position gives it enormous moral authority and ensures it is likely to be called on in the future as protector of the weak against the overmighty.
An evolving of world politics involves risks and opportunities. The last few years should teach us that we should prepare for the unexpected. Geopolitical resilience means outgrowing past unipolarities and bipolarities, empires and revolutionaries. One world with many peoples with unique cultures and viewpoints.
The tide on the turn?
However, the global ambitions of superpowers like China, Russia and the paranoia their allies and fellow travellers have been brought into focus by the wars in Ukraine, Israel/Gaza/Lebanon, Sudan; sanctions against Russia and Iran; the energy crisis; the supply chain crisis; the pandemic and perceived Western protectionism.
The 2024 Russian-hosted 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan marked a new step towards an alternative world order and potentially a new low in the old US hegemony and pre=eminence of the dollar.
Referring to a BRICS cross-border payment system bypassing the dollar the Kazan Declaration included the statement: "We recognise the widespread benefits of faster, low cost, more efficient, transparent, safe and inclusive cross-border payment instruments built upon the principle of minimizing trade barriers and non-discriminatory access. We welcome the use of local currencies in financial transactions between BRICS countries and their trading partners." And "We welcome the BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism (ICM) focus on facilitating and expanding innovative financial practices and approaches for projects and programmes, including finding acceptable mechanisms of financing in local currencies."
Of the new BRICS members, Iran is an ally of Russia sanctioned by the West, the UAE was described as Russia's best friend in the Middle East by Vladimir Putin. Turkey is an applicant and could qualify to join BRICS before the EU. The new Iron curtain may be similar to the old, but it certainly wont be confined to Europe and could dwarf the old British Empire.
See also Context Cast News magazine.
