In December 2025, Ursula von der Leyen had her summer clothes packed for a trip to Brazil. After twenty plus years the EU Mercosur (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay) FTA had at last been agreed. Except, it wasn't. In the weird world of the EU, the old saying "There's many a slip twixt cup and lip" comes into its own.
Members of the EU, a putative country, are not at liberty to make trade deals. Everything must be done by the Brussels bureaucracy and confirmed by the Politburo. The wheels grind exceedingly slow. Ten years are about the time it takes between starting to talk and an agreement.
Except, for the EU, an agreement is not really an agreement until those who don't like it have been bribed with 'development' funds to support it. Mercosur produces beef, lots of beef. It also has other agricultural products. It could be a growth market for EU industrial products. Enter the agricultural lobby. Protests, some of riot proportions, erupted in EU provinces from Ireland to Greece. The deal was seen as a threat to the subsidised lives of farmers. The northern states, the ones who pay for the EU, saw it differently. They wanted the deal. The EU parliament in a rare defiance of the Politburo voted to refer the deal to the ECJ. That could take another two or more years.
Never mind. After twenty years, the EU agreed an FTA with India. This time, showing some wisdom, agricultural products are largely left out of the treaty. This should assuage the fevered brows of any EU producers of Mangoes! However, despite the deal being signed amid great celebrations, it still requires ratification by the EU machinery. Back to cup and lip, perhaps.
True to its Socialist roots, the EU counts things not value. "Biggest free trade area in the world" was the billing for the Mercosur deal before the Indian one called for new superlatives.
The EU's share of world trade has been declining for years and is set to accelerate. Clinging to the coat tails of the up and coming is a way to mitigate that. In reality more than smoke and mirrors are needed to put the EU failings right. One attracted by the fog is Keir Starmer. He's looked in the mirror and seen the Socialist promised land. Reportedly, the EU are demanding cast iron guarantees that a future Reform government will not be able to undo any UK -EU deals. Apart from the arrogance, this demonstrates the fact that our legal and democratic positions are polar opposite. Both Reform and the Conservative party should make the following clear. No government in this country can bind its successor. The principle of individual sovereignty is sacrosanct, and no deal made by Starmer will be honoured.
