The election of Donald Trump and the new broom sweeping in the United States seemed like a light at the end of a very long tunnel. At last, it seemed, common sense had returned. Socialism and its woke spawn in retreat, hopefully to be vanquished.
J D Vance's speech in Munich had the self entitled twitching with indignation. Olaf Scholz accused him of interfering in his country's elections, after the US vice-president called on Europe to bring down far-Right firewalls. "We rejected this clearly… we decide ourselves what happens in our democracy". The firewall is the one operated across the EU to bar parties that the EU does not approve of, from participating in government.
Most EU Countries are ruled by coalitions. They operate under proportional representation. It is claimed to be more democratic than First Past the Post because it enables all views to be represented. Except of course, that's only true if the incumbents agree. Doing business with communists is fine, with any one on the right - no chance. The right is a threat to bureaucratic control. A threat to faux democracy where the electors elect people who appoint apparatchiks who really rule. It is an undemocratic system operated by an unelected cabal.
The EU has a long record of ignoring democracy, of not only interfering in elections, but forcing people to vote again until the right answer is given. They interfered in the Brexit referendum and have not stopped interfering since. Barack Obama's interference was welcomed, applauded. Rule by the unelected Politburo in Brussels suits the rulers of the EU and Britain. It means they don't need to concern themselves with the masses. They can comfortably ignore the wishes of the people they rule.
The fabric of countries has been drastically altered without consent. Brexit shocked them, Trump shocks them. That's why I had so much hope. Starmer intends to take us back into the EU. It may puzzle many why anyone would want to join a bloc that is totalitarian by nature. A bloc that is declining economically and whose German Power house refuses to accept a transfer union to enable the Euro (Hovering around $ parity) to have any hope of success. Worse, their economy is currently a basket case, trains are late and the roads are falling apart. France suffers depopulation due to unemployment. Youth unemployment in the EU' south is 25% caused in part, by the way Germany has subverted it as a fourth reich. The only attraction of re- joining the EU is to escape democracy.
Is the relief at a return to common sense, going to be snatched away? Trump prides himself on being a deal maker. Personally, I've never met any negotiator who shows all his cards before he even meets his interlocutor. Waiving a white flag to dictators has a long history of provoking tragedy.
Russia is on its knees economically. The Rubble is worth one US cent the inflation rate is 10%. In an effort to control the situation before it becomes a disaster the Russian Central Bank's interest rate is 21%. A leaked report by the Russian Economy Ministry (Reported by Reuters) states "A situation in which the slowdown of the economy up to a technical recession will occur much faster than the slowdown in inflation is becoming much more likely". Russia's National Wealth Fund has become the main source of financing Russia's budget deficit. It's liquid assets have dropped by about two thirds since the start of the Ukraine war. Militarily, Russia has been shown up as a weak incompetent force. It has had to release criminals and rent mercenaries from N Korea to reinforce its army. Russia is relying on Iran for drones, North Korean soldiers and Chinese economic support. Against a much smaller foe it has failed.
Against this backdrop Trump arrives like a Knight in shining armour to save Putin. Why? Anyone concerned with international peace knows this is the time to tighten the noose. Give hope to the millions of Russians subjugated by the tyrant. Appeasing Putin will have the same result as appeasing Hitler. Then, it was the Japanese who attacked and forced the US to fight,. This time it will be China. It is not necessary. Many in the US agree Roger Wicker, the Republican armed services committee chair, believes US defence secretary Pete Hegseth had given away a key bargaining chip by saying it was "uncertain" that Ukraine would regain its pre-war borders. Republican senator Susan Collins warned that "we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal" after Russia's "unprovoked, unjustified invasion" three years ago. Don Bacon, a Republican congressman, warned of "consequences of rewarding the invader". Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a long-term ally of Trump, says "We need to continue to build up the capability of the Ukrainian military. Arm them to the teeth, give them a bunch of F-16s". On February 15th, he tweeted "Putin's a thug and a bully. He'll get away with as much as he can, as long as he can, until someone stops him. So what do you do? … You fight like hell".
Is Trump listening? Foolishly he is treating Russia as a superpower and Putin as a trustworthy man who should re-join the G7. The 1930s appeasement of Hitler, Mussolini and Fumimaro Konoe resulted in the deaths of millions. Pretending that Fortress America was not concerned led to a longer war and the draining of British capital (All the UK's gold and securities were shipped to Canada and used to buy American armaments) The US had been in recession at the start of WW2 and British gold got them out of it. Maybe in the context of business it was a sensible strategy. In terms of Geopolitics and a safe, sane, world in which the US could prosper it was plain stupid.
We seem to have a US government that also believes that the US is insulated from the problems of Europe. That letting a murderous dictator have his way is fine because it's a European problem. Yes European members of NATO have not held up their end of the bargain and that has to change - fast. However, Trump's approach seems akin to cutting off his nose to spite his face. You cannot quarantine a dictator whose avowed aim is the recreation of the USSR. A man who has said that former members of the Soviet Union have no right to an independent existence. All Trump will do is give him a breathing space to rearm. A deal with Putin is simply putting off the evil day. Obama started the rot and Biden continued it. Does Trump really want to be known as the President who did not have the wit or guts to plough his own furrow?
There are calls for a Europeans army. The EU would welcome that, it is one of their ambitions. The world does not have a good record when it comes to armies controlled by the unelected. NATO has kept the peace since 1945. It needs to be strengthened. Every member needs to match US spending. All need to commit to the defence of countries threatened by Russian Imperialism. The comment pages are full of appeasers, it's as if one has been whisked back to 1938. The result then was untold misery and death. The result would be no different today. There are those in the US who claim their real enemy is China. That they cannot fight a war on two fronts. There is a problem with that thinking. Putin signed a decree declaring the sale of Alaska to the US illegal. The US border with Russia is a 53 mile wide stretch of water. Does anyone seriously believe that a victorious Putin let off the hook by Trump would not repay his Chinese benefactors with a rerun of Pearl Harbour? Two world wars should have demolished the idea that fortress America is immune to the world's problems. Someone in Washington should wake up - fast.
